The hottest steel demand stagnates, and overcapaci

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Steel demand stagnates, overcapacity will exist for a long time

if you count the current headache of China's steel industry, the first is undoubtedly overcapacity. Overcapacity has almost become a synonym for China's steel industry when developing green packaging. If you count the current headache of China's steel industry, the first is undoubtedly overcapacity. Overcapacity has almost become a synonym for China's steel industry

data show that China's iron ore imports reached 940 million tons in 2014, and this figure is expected to exceed 1 billion tons next year. The output of crude steel will exceed 820 million tons this year, with a year-on-year increase of 1.67%. According to the statistics of relevant departments, China's crude steel production capacity has actually been close to 1.2 billion tons

in sharp contrast to China's crude steel output, China's steel demand. According to statistics, China's apparent consumption of crude steel equivalent to 737 million tons this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25%

obviously, under the severe situation of increasing production and decreasing demand, resolving such a huge excess capacity will still be a long-term and arduous work

how to resolve overcapacity? Some people say that the increase of steel demand can naturally resolve excess capacity, but under the situation that China's economy will change from high-speed growth to medium and high-speed growth, it seems more and more distant to resolve capacity only by increasing steel demand

as a major consumer of steel in China, the performance of the real estate industry this year seems to have sounded an alarm for steel enterprises. Data show that this year, all industries ranked first among the seven new material industries and national high-tech industrial bases in China. On the demand list of steel (2594, 12.00, 0.46%), the construction industry ranked first with 390 million tons of consumption. In the prediction of steel demand next year, the prediction in the construction industry has only increased by about 5million tons. Using the downstream industry consumption method, the metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute predicts that China's steel demand in 2015 will be 723 million tons, an increase of 1.47% over 712.4 million tons this year. Compared with the domestic steel production capacity of nearly 1.2 billion tons, this is hardly worth mentioning

however, due to the proposal of the the Belt and Road policy, many domestic steel enterprises seem to see the dawn. Data show that in recent years, China's foreign contracting projects have expanded year by year, and the output value increased from US $13.87 billion in 2003 to US $137.14 billion in 2013. In the first half of 2014, the newly signed contract amount of foreign contracted projects was US $81.04 billion. According to the analysis, the contract amount and turnover of foreign contracted projects in 2014 are expected to increase by about 5%. Under the background of serious overcapacity of domestic steel, with the large-scale investment of the the Belt and Road and the long industrial chain, it is bound to stimulate the demand for steel in many industries. At the same time, it can well stimulate the upstream and downstream industrial chain of steel, which will further benefit the integration of China Mongolia relations to a new level "steel industry

however, for the Chinese steel enterprises that are currently thirsty for demand, this positive may just be wishful thinking. Some industry analysts bluntly said that the railway construction included in the the Belt and Road infrastructure is indeed very attractive to domestic steel enterprises, but first of all, with such a large base of domestic steel production capacity, these demands can not have an immediate effect, and the domestic steel industry is in a situation of excessive supply and insufficient demand

analyst Zhang Lin said that at present, they are still in the planning stage. The specific projects of infrastructure construction, when these projects can be officially started, and how much steel demand they can stimulate are pending. In particular, the railway, from the beginning of planning to the official start of construction, may take several years, and during this period, many steel enterprises may have withdrawn from the steel industry

in addition, the data obtained show that in this year's ranking of steel demand in various industries, the demand for steel by railway is only 5.2 million tons, which is 1.33% of the steel demand of the real estate industry, and the predicted quantity of steel for railway next year is also 5.2 million tons, the same as this year

Li Xinchuang said that in the future, the steel industry may maintain a normal low growth for a long time, that is, the production and consumption will fluctuate, and it is difficult to significantly improve. The national economic growth has slowed down, and the boom of the steel industry in those years is long gone

since internal digestion is not a good strategy, steel export has naturally become the second choice for many steel enterprises. It is understood that in the first 11 months of this year, China's steel exports totaled 83.7434 million tons, of which the steel exports in September and October exceeded 8.5 million tons. Without counting the statistics in December, the domestic steel exports have historically exceeded 80million tons, with a cumulative amount of 64.245 billion US dollars. Such export performance has also made China the largest steel export country

in fact, China's steel exports have basically increased in recent years. Since 2000, the proportion of China's steel exports in the world's total steel exports has increased from 4.8% to 2004. This kind of compact plate spring shaft is very suitable for the body/chassis concept of electric vehicles, which was more than 7% in 2005 and more than 15% in 2013

even though the steel export has reached the world's largest, this more than 80 million tons of steel still looks small in front of the giant of domestic production base. According to the data provided by the Metallurgical Industry Research Institute, the domestic crude steel output is expected to be 820 million tons in 2014. It can be seen that the steel export volume in the first 11 months is less than one tenth of the total crude steel output this year. Such a sharp gap reflects that the domestic steel industry is still in a serious situation in solving the problem of overcapacity. It can be predicted that in the future, domestic steel exports may be further increased to alleviate the pressure of excess capacity

however, increasing the export of steel is not a long-term solution. Liuhaimin, deputy director of the metallurgical industry economic development research center, said that excessive steel exports are bound to ignite foreign anti-dumping sentiment. Not only that, the excessive export of steel also reflects the unsound side of China's steel system. Most of the first exports are medium and low-end steel. Even if they are exported, there is not much profit space. It is equivalent to that Chinese steel enterprises sacrifice their own environment and funds to produce steel and sell it at a loss. This is basically contrary to the development path of foreign steel industry. In the future, China must first upgrade its products in export, Secondly, if the domestic steel market system is sound, the quantity of exported steel should be controlled within 40million tons

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