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Steel from steel to Steel Research Institute: industrial production continues to strengthen, and manufacturing investment is weak

steel from steel to Steel Research Institute: industrial production continues to strengthen, and manufacturing investment is weak

China Construction Machinery Information

in order to help employees in the steel industry understand the macro environment and predict the macroeconomic growth trend in 2021, the new program of "Steel Research Institute" invited Mr. Liu Xiaowen, a senior analyst in the steel industry, to interpret the first quarter of 2021 GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, infrastructure, real estate and other data indicators

special guest Liu Xiaowen has successively worked in domestic well-known steel information stations, investment companies, and steel trading enterprises, and has rich research experience in various varieties of steel upstream and downstream industrial chains. He has unique views on macroeconomic trends, iron and steel research system and trading strategies, and is especially good at analyzing and judging the market of coke and coking coal

teacher Liu Xiaowen first reviewed the macro data of the first quarter of 021 that served our lives. Compared with the first quarter of 2019, the real growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 was 10.3%. By industry, the actual growth rate of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries increased by 4.6%, 12.5% and 9.6% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2019. It can be seen that the growth rate of the secondary industry is strong, which is significantly better than the GDP growth rate. Among them, the production performance of industry and construction industry continued to be strong, with an increase of 15.9% and 8.2% respectively over the same period in 2019

next, teacher Liu Xiaowen introduced and analyzed the relevant data of macro leverage ratio. Macro leverage ratio is generally an indicator to measure the financial stability of an economy, which refers to the ratio of debt to GDP of each department. As can be seen from the data chart below, the overall trend of the macro leverage ratio of the enterprise sector is gradually decreasing, the macro leverage ratio of the resident sector is gradually increasing, and the macro leverage ratio of the government sector is tending to be stable. The clamping force of the sample will change with wear. Affected by epidemic factors, the macro leverage ratio of each department increased significantly from December 2019 to March 2020, and then tended to be normal

secondly, teacher Liu Xiaowen analyzed the investment problem. It can be seen from the data that since 2017, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has begun to be slower than the growth rate of GDP fixed capital formation, indicating that there was a foam in fixed asset investment before 2017, and the ratio tends to be low at present. In addition, from December 2019 to now, we can find that private investment is rising month by month, reaching the highest level in February this year, approaching 58%

in terms of industries, the investment in the tertiary industry increased rapidly, and the investment in the secondary industry, which is also the first injection molding machine provided by Engel for NCC, increased negatively. Compared with 2019, the tertiary industry increased by 7.35% and the secondary industry decreased by 0.19%. Among them, industrial investment increased by 0.83% and manufacturing investment decreased by 2.91%

teacher Liu Xiaowen said that in the manufacturing industry, computer communication, transportation equipment, special equipment and other outstanding performance, rapid growth. The growth rate of downstream manufacturing industry is slow. High demand, environmental protection policies and other factors have led to the rise in commodity prices, which has also led to a slight rise in investment in commodity manufacturing industries. Last year, downstream manufacturing investment was suppressed, but some industries took the lead in recovering and continued their strong investment willingness at the beginning of this year

finally, teacher Liu Xiaowen also analyzed and interpreted the data of construction industry, real estate, social financing, global GDP and other data, and made a prospect for the later development of macro-economy. For more highlights, please search and pay attention to the subscription number "Heijin iron and Steel Research Institute", and click the menu bar "live review" to watch the case playback video